One of three case studies conducted under the ‘Community Solutions’ sub-project of the Energy Efficiency in the Built Environment project (link), This project simulates a series of ‘what-if’ urban form experiments from 2020 to 2050 to test alternative energy and emissions reduction policy interventions. The simulation was based on an area in the city of Prince George, selected because of its northern BC location, well-developed land use, energy and emissions policies and goals, accessible data, and engagement from the local municipal government. The effects of potential policy interventions are tested through multiple iterations of a digital “sandbox” model, which replicates spatial and non-spatial attributes such as land use patterns, population, building types, ages and technologies for the neighbourhood. Each “sandbox” is grounded in local census and building stock data tailored to reflect the conditions of the community, and through modelling is responsive to the influence of the policy options under consideration.

Research questions: How do contemplated local and regional policy interventions affect energy and emissions reductions? Which of those policy interventions also have a positive effect on neighbourhood livability?

Three future urban form experiments for 2050 were simulated: no-growth; modest growth situated around a mixed-use neighbourhood centre; modest growth situated along two designated corridors. For each experiment we measured select livability indicators, both existing transportation infrastructure and added active transportation corridors; building technology retrofits and “deep” building retrofits (both technology and building envelope upgrades). Adoption of the BC Energy Step Code for all new buildings, was assumed.

Detailed results are reported here.