The project developed future what-if scenarios for the urban forest to investigate where and how much trees may contribute to urban greening, tree shading, building energy, and livability.

Communities need cross-cutting tools and knowledge for climate action planning to elevate progress. What is unclear for many communities is exactly which changes, such as densification, transit, walkable neighbourhoods, or tree planting bring the most beneficial social outcomes, or future conflicts, and how incremental changes over longer time horizons may add up.

This project evaluates where and how much trees can contribute to reduced energy use by buildings and outdoor shading to maintain livability in increasingly dense neighbourhoods. We modelled four different future ‘what-if’ scenarios for increasing tree canopy cover and volume in a densifying 256 hectare area of Vancouver to 2050. Digital proxy models were utilized to spatially visualize and assess both urban form and urban forest changes in 2050. Urban building energy modelling was employed to estimate impacts on building energy use and emissions. We also apply outdoor energy models to assess tree shading effects across the neighbourhood. The scenarios include: 1) maintaining existing municipal urban forestry policies without climate-adapted trees and 2) with climate-adapted trees; 3) strategically planting trees to reduce building energy; 4) maximizing tree planting across the neighbourhood.

An interactive data visualization platform reports on future urban forest scenarios for effects on shading, cooling, and livability of neighbourhoods.