Cities benefit when the spatial implications of alternative policy approaches to growth can be rehearsed, visualized and assessed iteratively, and in parallel with policy development. By 2050, Vancouver population and jobs are projected to grow approximately 260,000 (40%) and 210,000 (50%) respectively. How this growth is managed — in distributed, concentrated or other patterns — has important implications for people, place and environment. Well-resourced cities, are able to spatially and quantitatively model options in context. However, these modeling processes can be prohibitively complex, requiring expertise, extensive information and significant resources such that few options can be rehearsed and compared iteratively. Type- and rules-based modelling approaches offer opportunity to simplify and streamline these modeling processes such that a greater range of options and variables could be simulated and compared.

A prior project, deployed a machine-learning method to identify eight distinct Vancouver urban form types representative of typical neighbourhood scale spatial patterns and attributes. In this version eight form types, and derivatives, were assigned and calibrated to simulate a 2020 baseline.

Informed by contemplated policies and urban design principles under consideration by the City a types- and rule-based model was then developed for 2050. Focused initial pilots of modeling methods were undertaken for two future transit corridors. Following verifications and review, the whole city was modeled to simulate potential build out in 2050 under the contemplated policies. From these, measures of anticipated population, density, service and amenity proximities, dwelling types and floor areas were generated.

More about this project:
Visit the Interactive Results Dashboard here.